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Snowy Christmas Odds Rise with Polar Vortex
9 Dec, 2025
Summary
- A white Christmas requires at least one inch of snow on the ground.
- Historically, 38% of the contiguous US has snow on Christmas Day.
- Alaska and Northern US regions have the highest chance for snow.
As of early December 2025, meteorologists are closely watching the polar vortex, a significant driver of winter weather patterns. A weakening or unstable polar vortex can lead to colder temperatures and increased chances of snow across various regions.
The definition of a white Christmas by weather services requires a minimum of one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day, not necessarily snowfall occurring on that specific date. Data from NOAA indicates that, on average, around 38% of the contiguous United States experiences this snowy holiday.
Historically, certain areas show a much higher likelihood of a white Christmas. These include Alaska, Minnesota, Maine, upstate New York, and mountainous regions like the Alleghenies and Rockies. Cities such as Fairbanks, Minneapolis, Green Bay, Buffalo, and Burlington, Vermont, frequently report snow-covered ground on Christmas.
