Mild Winter Ahead for UK with Higher Chance of Northwesterly Winds

As of October 14th, 2025, the UK's weather forecasters have released their outlook for the upcoming winter season from October to December. The predictions indicate that the country is most likely to experience average or milder conditions over the three-month period.

Specifically, there is a 55% chance that the winter will be considered "near average", which is 0.9 times the normal chance. Additionally, there is a 30% chance that the season will be "mild", 1.5 times the normal chance. Conversely, the likelihood of a "cold" winter is only 15%, 0.8 times the normal chance.

However, the forecasters note that consistent with the ongoing warming climate, there is an increased chance of northwesterly or northerly weather patterns. This could lead to a greater frequency of colder weather spells and winter hazards later in the season.

In terms of precipitation, the outlook predicts a 70% chance of "near average" rainfall amounts across the UK. There is a 20% chance the season will be "dry", and only a 10% chance it will be "wet". The forecasters state that the chances of a wet three-month period are less than normal, but the likelihood of a dry period is around average due to an increased chance of high-pressure patterns in the south.

The Met Office also anticipates that much of the rainfall may occur in the upland regions of the north and northwest, while the east and south of the country are likely to be drier.