Could a tropical storm form in the Eastern Pacific in January?

Yes, although it's extremely rare. Meteorologists note a small, 10 percent chance of a subtropical storm forming this weekend or early next week due to specific atmospheric conditions despite the usual cold water.

Why is a January tropical storm in the Eastern Pacific so rare?

Typically, January in the Eastern Pacific has cold ocean water temperatures and strong wind shear, which usually prevent tropical cyclones from forming or sustaining themselves.

What is the difference between a tropical and subtropical storm?

A subtropical storm has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones, with its strongest winds farther from the center compared to a tropical storm.

Home / Weather / January Pacific Storm? Rare Tropical Anomaly Looms

January Pacific Storm? Rare Tropical Anomaly Looms

14 Jan

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Summary

A rare January tropical system is possible in the Eastern Pacific.
Meteorologists cite 'extremely rare' conditions due to cold water.
The chance of formation is estimated at a low 10 percent.

January Pacific Storm? Rare Tropical Anomaly Looms

A Florida meteorologist has alerted the public to the possibility of a tropical system forming in the Eastern Pacific this weekend or early next week. This occurrence is considered 'extremely rare' for January, a period well outside the typical hurricane season which ended on November 30. While conditions are usually unfavorable due to cold water temperatures and increased wind shear, models indicate a brief window for a small tropical system.

Experts estimate the chance of such a formation at a low 10 percent, likely resulting in a subtropical storm rather than a fully tropical one. The National Hurricane Center is not currently tracking any potential disturbances in the Eastern Pacific. If a storm were to form, it is not expected to impact California or Mexico, likely dissipating quickly in the cold waters.

This potential event is notable because historical records show no reported cases of January tropical storm formation in the Eastern Pacific. While a few January systems have occurred in the Central Pacific and Atlantic, the Eastern Pacific's cooler waters and winter wind shear typically prevent such development. However, the presence of thunderstorms on satellite imagery offers a slim possibility for formation.