El Niño Fuels Pacific Hurricane Surge

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season, commencing on May 15, 2026, is anticipated to be highly active. This forecast is driven by the expected formation of an El Niño and significantly warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures. El Niño, a cycle of warm equatorial waters, typically reduces Atlantic hurricane activity while boosting that of the Pacific.

Forecasters predict a heightened risk for areas along Mexico's west coast, Hawaii, and the Southwestern United States. While direct landfalls are rare in California and Hawaii, remnants of storms have historically caused significant flooding and issues in these regions. An increase in storm frequency or intensity this year raises the potential for greater impacts.

Several meteorological organizations project an above-average number of storms for the Pacific. For instance, Mexico's National Meteorological Service forecasts 18 to 21 named storms, with nine to 11 hurricanes. Private forecaster AccuWeather suggests up to 22 named storms, with nine to 13 hurricanes.

El Niño's influence on the Pacific includes calmer winds and warmer waters, creating ideal conditions for storm development. Scientists emphasize a particular elevation in risk for Mexico's west coast and the central Pacific basin, potentially including major hurricanes. Hawaii, in particular, faces an unusually high risk of hurricane landfall this season, with expectations of hotter, more humid conditions and strengthened storms.