What are the latest snow predictions for New York City this weekend?

Forecast models show varying possibilities, with some predicting heavy snow and others lighter amounts. The National Weather Service indicates a moderate chance of significant winter impacts.

When is the snowstorm expected to hit the NYC area?

The National Weather Service suggests snow is most likely to occur from Saturday night through Sunday.

Why do snowstorm forecasts differ between the American and European models?

The American (GFS) and European (ECMWF) models use different data inputs and methodologies, leading to variations in their storm predictions.

Home / Weather / NYC Snowstorm Alert: Models Diverge on Intensity

NYC Snowstorm Alert: Models Diverge on Intensity

21 Jan

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Summary

Forecast models offer conflicting predictions for the weekend snowstorm.
Snowfall is most likely to occur from Saturday night through Sunday.
NWS indicates a moderate chance of significant winter impacts for NYC.

Forecast models are generating divergent predictions for a significant winter storm expected to impact the New York City area this weekend. Confidence in an impactful storm is growing, according to the National Weather Service. One prominent model, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), suggests heavy snow across much of the central and eastern United States, including New York City.

In contrast, the American model, known as the Global Forecast System (GFS), indicates a more moderate potential for snow in the New York City region. FOX 5 NY meteorologist Mike Woods noted that some models predict over a foot of snow just south of the city, suggesting the storm could be an "overachiever."

The National Weather Service (NWS) anticipates the most likely period for snowfall, sleet, and freezing rain to be from Saturday night through Sunday. As of Tuesday morning, the NWS has assigned a 40% chance of "at least moderate winter impacts" to parts of the NYC area, with a 43% chance of receiving five inches or more of snow.