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Met Office Predicts Milder Than Normal UK Winter in 2025
12 Oct
Summary
- 55% chance of near-average temperatures, 30% chance of mild conditions
- Polar vortex weakening could bring colder spells later in winter
- Warming climate making severe UK winters increasingly rare
According to the Met Office's latest three-month outlook, the upcoming 2025 UK winter is most likely to bring average or milder conditions than normal. The forecast for October to December shows a 55% chance of "near-average" temperatures and a 30% chance of "mild" weather. There is only a 15% chance of "cold" conditions.
However, the outlook also notes that by December, there could be a higher chance of chillier weather than usual. This is due to the potential weakening of the polar vortex, a large circulation of winds high above the Earth's surface that can impact winter weather patterns. A weaker polar vortex can allow cold air from the Arctic to spill southward towards the UK, leading to colder spells.
Despite this, experts warn that severe and sustained cold is becoming much less likely in the UK as the climate continues to warm. The last truly cold winter for the country as a whole was five years ago. While isolated cold snaps may still occur, they will be less potent than in the past due to the overall warming trend. Meteorologists emphasize that the memory of extreme events like the "Beast from the East" in 2018 can make increasingly rare cold winters seem more surprising when they do happen.
