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80% Chance of Tropical Depression Forming Sunday
19 Jul
Summary
- Low pressure system in Gulf shows increased organization.
- System has 80% chance of developing into tropical storm.
- Rain bands expected to bring flooding and gusty winds.
A low-pressure system in the northeast Gulf of Mexico is showing significant organization and has an 80% probability of developing into a tropical depression or storm within the next 48 hours, a notable increase from Saturday's 20% chance. This developing system is expected to move northwestward over the next two days.
Showers and thunderstorms are intensifying around a more defined center of circulation, indicating a developing tropical depression. Potential impacts include tropical downpours leading to flash flooding and gusty winds along the coastlines from Florida's west coast through Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. Some areas in the Florida Panhandle could receive 4 to 6 inches of rain by Thursday.
The storm has a limited development window due to minimal disruptive wind shear anticipated through Monday. Increased shear is expected to begin on Tuesday, which could hinder further strengthening. If the disturbance matures into a tropical storm, it would be named Bertha.
This potential storm marks the second named system of the Atlantic hurricane season. The last named storm, Tropical Storm Arthur, formed in mid-June and made landfall shortly after near Galveston, Texas. Current NOAA predictions suggest a lower-than-average number of named systems this season.
