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Gulf Disturbance May Ignite Hurricane Season
5 Oct
Summary
- Gulf disturbance has a high chance of developing this week.
- Tropical storm or depression is possible; hurricane a low chance.
- Florida may experience rain and wind impacts late this week.
A brewing disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico presents a significant chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm by mid-to-late this week. Forecasters indicate a low possibility of this system reaching hurricane strength.
Florida residents should anticipate potential impacts, including rain and wind, from Friday, October 9th, through Sunday, October 11th. Even without significant development, a surge of tropical moisture is expected to bring heavy rainfall and flooding to the U.S. Gulf Coast.
The most probable track for the developing system is northward toward the northern Gulf Coast. However, its ultimate path depends on its organization speed and the influence of an upper-level low over Texas, with possibilities ranging from the Florida Panhandle to parts of Texas.
While the Gulf waters are warm enough to support rapid intensification, wind shear is likely to limit how quickly this system can organize and strengthen. The National Hurricane Center has assigned a 70% chance of development within seven days for this disturbance.
