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El Niño promises rain for California, but reservoirs are already full
19 Sep
Summary
- A strengthening El Niño is expected to bring above-average precipitation to Southern California this winter.
- Several major reservoirs in Southern California are already near or above capacity.
- Officials are preparing to manage inflows by drawing down reservoir levels before winter storms.
New outlooks from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center indicate that a strengthening El Niño will likely bring above-average precipitation to Southern California this winter. This forecast comes as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is on track to become a 'super' El Niño, with ocean waters warmer by approximately 2 degrees Celsius. This phenomenon is expected to influence global weather patterns, including a wetter winter for the U.S. Southwest.
Despite the anticipated rainfall, many of Southern California's major reservoirs are already near capacity. Castaic Lake, the state's largest facility, is at 95 percent capacity, significantly above its seasonal average. To prepare for incoming water, reservoir managers will draw down levels to safely manage inflows and release water, a normal winter procedure. Other reservoirs like Lake Casitas and Diamond Valley Reservoir are also exceptionally full.
Officials are actively monitoring conditions and preparing for the incoming precipitation. While Castaic Lake and Lake Casitas are at 95 percent capacity, Diamond Valley Reservoir is at 97 percent capacity, both well above average for this time of year. These reservoirs are being managed to capture and store water for future dry periods, with efforts also focused on storing water in groundwater basins.
