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White Christmas? Almanacs Disagree Wildly
9 Nov
Summary
- Two major almanacs offer conflicting Christmas snow predictions.
- The Plains region shows the most significant forecast split.
- Historical data and current outlooks offer clues to accuracy.

As the holiday season approaches, two venerable publications, The Old Farmer's Almanac and the Farmers' Almanac, present opposing predictions for a white Christmas. Their forecasts diverge significantly across various regions of the United States, leaving many wondering what to expect on Christmas morning.
The most striking contrast appears in the Plains states, where one almanac forecasts stormy weather and heavy snow, while the other anticipates no white Christmas. The Northeast also sees a flip in predictions, with one almanac calling for snow and the other a wintry mix.
However, some common ground exists, particularly in the Western mountains, where both publications foresee snow. Historically, data from NOAA suggests higher odds of snow in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, aligning more with one almanac's view. Yet, current climate outlooks, influenced by factors like El Niño, lean towards a warmer November, which could indirectly support the milder forecast of the other almanac.
Until the Climate Prediction Center releases its official December outlook, the accuracy of either almanac remains uncertain. It is highly probable that at least one publication's forecast will not materialize for Christmas morning.