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California Hurricane Risk Soars: El Niño Fuels Pacific Storms
7 May
Summary
- Warm Pacific waters due to El Niño may increase hurricane impacts in California.
- AccuWeather forecasts 17-22 named storms, with 4-8 potentially becoming major hurricanes.
- Heavy rain and flooding are primary threats, even from weakened tropical systems.
Parts of California may experience increased hurricane-related impacts in 2026 as forecasters warn of potential threats from tropical systems influenced by warm Pacific waters. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season, running from May 15 to November 30, is predicted by AccuWeather to feature 17 to 22 named storms, with nine to 13 strengthening into hurricanes and four to eight becoming major hurricanes.
An El Niño pattern, characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, is a key factor. These conditions in the Pacific basin can foster storm development and allow systems to survive longer, potentially impacting the U.S. West Coast. Elevated risk zones extend from Baja California northward, with AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva identifying San Diego, Orange, and Riverside counties as most at risk.
Even without a direct hurricane landfall, tropical systems can bring significant consequences. Moisture pulled northward from decaying storms can trigger flash flooding, mudslides, and coastal erosion. These heavy rain events, even from weakened systems, can overwhelm drainage, leading to rapid flooding in both urban and desert areas. Other Southwestern states like New Mexico and Arizona also face heightened flash flood risks.
While El Niño typically boosts Pacific hurricane activity, it often suppresses storm development in the Atlantic Basin. This year's Pacific season is expected to be unusually active, contrasting with a forecast for fewer Atlantic hurricanes. Hawaii also faces an increased chance of direct tropical storm impacts.
