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Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Below Normal
22 Aug
Summary
- Below-normal Atlantic hurricane season is now most likely.
- El Niño strengthens, increasing wind shear and disrupting storms.
- Warm waters near coasts still pose risks despite lower storm count.
NOAA's updated outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season indicates a below-normal activity is now the most likely outcome, with a 55% chance. This forecast predicts 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes.
The primary driver for this shift is the strengthening El Niño, which is projected to increase vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. This phenomenon typically disrupts storm development and limits their ability to organize and strengthen.
Despite the quieter basin-wide forecast, forecasters emphasize that the risk is not evenly reduced. Sea surface temperatures remain slightly above normal across the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, including the Gulf and Caribbean. These warmer waters can still support rapid development of storms that form closer to land.
NOAA cautions that seasonal outlooks are not landfall forecasts and do not predict activity for specific locations. Therefore, no coastline can be considered safe, even with lower overall storm numbers. Residents in areas like Texas, Florida, and along the Atlantic coast must remain prepared.
