AI IPOs face funding squeeze as SpaceX leads charge

The IPO market faces a potential crunch as SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic gear up for significant public debuts. SpaceX is slated to begin its roadshow as early as June, with OpenAI and Anthropic expected to follow in the second half of 2026. This convergence of mega-IPOs could consume substantial investor demand, potentially leaving less room for other large companies.

Analysts suggest that the SpaceX offering alone might capture a significant portion of available investment. This scenario could delay the reopening of the IPO window for many companies until 2027. Some pre-IPO software firms are already adjusting their plans to avoid conflicts with SpaceX's schedule.

Meanwhile, a revenue showdown is unfolding between OpenAI and Anthropic. Anthropic recently reported annualized revenue exceeding $30 billion, seemingly surpassing OpenAI's disclosed $2 billion monthly revenue (or $24 billion annualized). This rapid growth by Anthropic, a competitor to OpenAI's ChatGPT with its Claude model, marks a significant catch-up.

Discrepancies exist in revenue reporting, with some arguing Anthropic's gross reporting inflates its figures compared to OpenAI's net reporting. Regardless, the focus is shifting towards token usage for revenue generation, prompting OpenAI to reorient its product roadmap towards enterprise solutions and heavy token usage, mirroring Anthropic's enterprise success.

Furthermore, the massive expansion of data centers required for AI is presenting a funding challenge. Projections indicate a need for at least 110 gigawatts of AI data center capacity by 2030. The estimated costs, ranging from $6.6 trillion to $8.8 trillion, could outpace the total available funding from major tech companies and debt markets, suggesting AI's ambitious growth may be constrained by financial limitations.