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AI agents to lead holiday shopping in 2026
29 Oct
Summary
- AI assistants are shifting from product discovery to order management.
- Consumer pessimism has climbed 16% compared to last year.
- Physical stores remain the most preferred holiday shopping channel.
The 2026 holiday shopping season is poised for a significant transformation, with AI shopping agents predicted to play a dominant role. Global digital traffic saw an 18% increase in Q2, yet order volume grew only 1%, highlighting a disconnect retailers face. Consumer pessimism has climbed 16% compared to the previous year, with a noticeable increase in shoppers reporting worsening financial situations.
Salesforce's "2026 Holiday Predictions" forecast five core shifts: agentic search where AI finds products, branded agents for retail sites, decoupled transactions on social platforms, physical stores as hybrid journey anchors, and a K-shaped economy dividing spending by income. These trends underscore a move towards AI-driven discovery and transaction, while consumer confidence wanes.
AI assistants are evolving beyond mere product discovery. While 50% of shoppers use AI at some stage of buying, their role extends to order management and customer service. Notably, 41% of shoppers feel "much more confident" buying after an AI assistant answers their questions, reducing the need to read reviews.
Physical stores are projected to remain a cornerstone of the holiday shopping experience, with 77% of shoppers preferring them. Reasons include immediate purchase, tactile product interaction, and store atmosphere. Stores will function as anchors in a hybrid journey, complementing online research and purchases.
The economic outlook suggests a "K-shaped economy" where high-income households spend with more confidence, while low- and middle-income families face increased pessimism and reduce spending. Inflation and gas prices are key concerns for lower-income groups, leading to a widespread trend of trading down to cheaper alternatives.
Free shipping continues to be a top priority for shoppers across all income levels, with global shipping subsidies expected to cost retailers an additional $3 billion. Retailers are advised to offer threshold-based free shipping and BOPIS (buy online, pick up in store) for budget-conscious consumers, while employing premium bundling and loyalty perks for affluent shoppers.
