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Chaos Scenarios Reveal Unpredictable Paths to College Football Playoff
13 Nov
Summary
- 18 teams have at least 20% chance to make Playoff, up from 16 last year
- Chaotic scenarios include SEC domination, Iowa making Playoff, and Arizona State winning Big 12
- First-round matchups could see multiple upsets in one projected bracket
As of November 13, 2025, the College Football Playoff race is still very much in flux, with projections showing 18 teams having at least a 20% chance to make the Playoff field. This is up from 16 teams at this time last year, indicating just how wide open the competition remains with three weeks left in the regular season.
The article explores several chaotic scenarios that could play out, including one where the SEC dominates the field, grabbing six of the seven at-large bids and all four first-round home games. Another possibility has Iowa improbably winning the Big Ten and making the Playoff at 10-3, while Cincinnati beats Texas Tech to give the Big 12 two bids. There's even a scenario where Arizona State, with just a 3% chance to make the Playoff at this time last year, wins out and claims the Big 12 championship.
One of the most intriguing projected brackets features potential for multiple first-round upsets, with matchups like Oregon at Texas, Georgia at USC, and Pitt at Ole Miss all being toss-ups. The article notes that while these chaotic scenarios may seem unlikely, they are still technically possible given the unpredictable nature of the season.
