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Model Predicts Over in Phillies vs. Marlins Game
29 Jul
Summary
- Model simulates 10,000 times to predict MLB game outcomes.
- Both starting pitchers have struggled recently against opponents.
- Previous matchups this season have seen high scoring totals.
The upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins on Tuesday is the focus of a detailed simulation by SportsLine's model. The model, which has a strong track record with MLB picks, ran 10,000 simulations for this matchup.
The model's primary prediction is for the combined runs to exceed 8. This forecast is supported by recent trends, as the last three games between these NL East rivals have averaged 13.7 total runs. Additionally, the over has hit in five out of eight games played between the Phillies and Marlins this season.
Both starting pitchers, Aaron Nola for the Phillies and Sandy Alcantara for the Marlins, are projected to contribute to a high-scoring game. Nola has allowed a .300 batting average to Marlins batters and leads the National League in home runs allowed with 25. Alcantara, while a former Cy Young winner, is coming off a poor outing and has allowed an .820 OPS to current Phillies hitters.
Beyond the over/under, the model also suggests there is value on one side of the money line. SportsLine's analysis provides betting advice based on its extensive simulations.
