New Orleans Bowl: Old Rivals Clash Again

The 2025 New Orleans Bowl is set to host a compelling matchup between former Conference USA rivals, the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and the Southern Miss Golden Eagles. This contest marks a significant renewal of acquaintances between the two programs, with kickoff scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday. Both teams arrive at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans carrying considerable momentum after recent struggles. Western Kentucky has lost its last two games, both by narrow margins of three points, while Southern Miss enters on a more extensive three-game losing streak.

The historical head-to-head record heavily favors Western Kentucky, who holds a perfect 4-0 all-time record against Southern Miss. This undefeated streak adds an intriguing layer to the bowl game narrative. The game's betting landscape sees Western Kentucky as a 1.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 58.5 points. However, advanced analytics suggest a defensive battle might be in the cards. The SportsLine Projection Model, after simulating the game 10,000 times, has confidently projected that the total score will fall UNDER 58.5 points.

This prediction is bolstered by recent trends for both teams. The under has hit in six of Western Kentucky's last nine games and in three of Southern Miss's last four contests. Furthermore, both teams have a history of lower-scoring games when facing unfamiliar opponents. WKU's non-conference games have trended under in six of nine instances, while Southern Miss has seen the under hit in five of eight out-of-conference matchups. The model anticipates an average of 3.5 combined turnovers, which is expected to stifle offensive drives and contribute to a lower final score, with the under hitting well over 50% of the time.