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LSU's CFP hopes fade after Alabama loss
8 Nov
Summary
- LSU faces a challenging path to the College Football Playoff after a 31-13 loss to Alabama.
- The Tigers have a slim chance with remaining tough games against Texas and Tennessee.
- A win-out scenario and favorable outcomes for other teams could keep playoff dreams alive.
First-year LSU head coach Lane Kiffin's quest for the College Football Playoff faces a significant hurdle after the Tigers' 31-13 loss to Alabama on Saturday, November 8, 2026. This marked LSU's third loss of the season.
LSU's path to the playoff is now narrow. Prior to the Alabama game, ESPN's Football Power Index gave them a 51.7% chance. Currently ranked 14th, they would be outside the top 12. The Tigers' resume includes wins over Clemson and LSU at home, and road victories against Auburn, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State.
However, they also suffered a close road loss to Ole Miss and an overtime defeat to Kentucky, who is now ranked No. 7. LSU still has opportunities to build their resume with upcoming games against No. 15 Texas at home on November 14, 2026, and a road game against No. 13 Tennessee on November 21, 2026, followed by Arkansas. Winning both of these games convincingly, coupled with losses from teams ranked ahead of them like Notre Dame, Ole Miss, and Tennessee, could present a playoff argument.
According to AAllstate's Playoff Predictor, LSU has a 73% chance to make the CFP if they win out. This projection holds even if they fail to reach the SEC Championship game, a scenario that is largely expected. A win-out scenario for a three-loss team previously held a 95% chance of making the CFP entering Saturday.
