Home / Sports / ESPN FPI Underrates Bears' 2026 Potential
ESPN FPI Underrates Bears' 2026 Potential
4 Jun
Summary
- ESPN's 2026 FPI ranks Chicago Bears at No. 16.
- Model gives Bears 46.5% playoff chance, downplaying team improvements.
- Analysts question FPI's reliance on speculative preseason data.
ESPN's initial 2026 NFL power index projections place the Chicago Bears at No. 16, a surprising position given their 2025 playoff appearance. Despite a successful first season under coach Ben Johnson, the model assigns the Bears only a 46.5% likelihood of reaching the postseason and a low probability of repeating as division champions.
These preseason rankings, derived from betting market win totals and schedule strength, have historically shown inaccuracies, with past top-ranked teams failing to meet expectations. Analysts suggest the FPI overstates potential Bears regression, particularly concerning their defense's reliance on turnovers in 2025. However, substantial defensive acquisitions and draft picks aim to bolster the team's ability to limit opponent success.
The Bears have made significant roster improvements, notably in their secondary with the additions of Coby Bryant and Dillon Thieneman. Entering year two with Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams, and with early reports indicating Williams' development, the team appears poised for continued contention. This optimism contrasts sharply with ESPN's conservative outlook, suggesting the Bears may outperform their projected standing.
