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Why Early Passes Fuel Bills' Offensive Success
10 Oct
Summary
- Analytics suggest NFL teams should pass more than run.
- Bills' early-down passing rate impacts offensive efficiency.
- Decreased early-down passing correlated with lower EPA per play.
Analytics consistently indicate that NFL teams benefit from a higher pass rate compared to run plays, a strategy that the Buffalo Bills initially embraced this season.
In the early weeks, the Bills demonstrated a high frequency of passing on early downs, correlating with strong offensive performance, measured by EPA per play.
However, in subsequent games, a noticeable shift away from early-down passing occurred. This change was accompanied by a decrease in the offense's EPA per play, suggesting a negative impact on efficiency.
Despite the desire from some observers to feature running back Cook more prominently, prioritizing early-down passing remains a key to sustained offensive success for teams like the Bills.
