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Belmont Gates: Modern Era Favors Low-to-Mid Stalls
3 Jun
Summary
- Posts 2, 3, 6, and 7 have produced three winners each since 2006.
- Historically dominant Post 1 has only one winner in the last 20 years.
- Low-to-middle stalls (2-8) account for 75% of recent Belmont Stakes winners.
The post-position draw for the Belmont Stakes often sparks debate, with bettors scrutinizing potential advantages. Historically, inside posts, particularly Post 1, have yielded the most winners since 1905. However, this dominance has waned significantly in recent decades.
Looking at the last 20 runnings, Posts 2, 3, 6, and 7 have emerged as the most successful, each producing three winners since 2006. Post 8 follows with two victories in the same period. Notably, the historically strong Post 1 has only produced one winner in the last 20 years, Triple Crown winner Justify in 2018.
Recent statistics indicate a preference for low-to-middle stalls. Posts 2 through 8 collectively account for 75% of the last 20 Belmont Stakes winners. This suggests that horses drawn near the inside, but not necessarily on the rail, have experienced greater success.
However, bettors are advised to consider the draw as just one factor. The Belmont Stakes often features smaller fields, which can diminish the draw's impact. Furthermore, the 2024 and 2025 Belmont Stakes were held at Saratoga Race Course due to renovations at Belmont Park, a factor to consider when analyzing recent data.
