PGA Championship 2026: Surprising Model Picks Revealed

The 2026 PGA Championship, set to begin Thursday, May 14, at Aronimink Golf Club, is the subject of a detailed 10,000-simulation analysis by a specialized golf model. This model, which has a proven track record of accurately predicting major golf tournaments, including 17 previous majors, has released its surprising early projections for this year's event.

Scottie Scheffler, currently the favorite at +340, is predicted to perform strongly in the championship. However, the simulations highlight potential surprises, notably Bryson DeChambeau, who is projected to barely finish in the top five. This forecast comes despite DeChambeau's past consistent performances at this event, contrasting with his recent struggles and withdrawal due to wrist discomfort.

In contrast to DeChambeau's projected performance, the model foresees a robust showing from Tommy Fleetwood, who carries odds of +2500. Fleetwood, a previous Tour Championship winner, is in strong form this season with multiple top-10 finishes. His success at the PGA Championship hinges on improving his putting, a factor that could position him as a significant contender for his first major win.

The model also identifies several other longshot players who are expected to make a notable impact, including one player with odds higher than 20-1 who could emerge as a surprise title contender. These comprehensive projections offer valuable insights for golf enthusiasts and bettors preparing for the 2026 PGA Championship.