Home / Science / Trump Slams Climate Predictions as "Stupid" - But How Reliable Are Models?
Trump Slams Climate Predictions as "Stupid" - But How Reliable Are Models?
1 Oct
Summary
- Trump calls climate change predictions the "greatest con job"
- Climate models help scientists understand past, present, and future climate
- Models have improved over time but still face accuracy challenges
In a speech at the United Nations General Assembly on September 23, 2025, US President Donald Trump criticized climate change predictions, calling them the "greatest con job" ever. Trump claimed that the forecasts made by the United Nations and others were "wrong" and made by "stupid people".
The predictions Trump referred to are typically generated using climate models - computer programs that simulate the Earth's climate system to understand past, present, and future climate patterns. These models, based on the principles of physics, chemistry, and biology, help scientists analyze the interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, land, and ice.
Climate models have evolved significantly over the years, from simple Energy Balance Models in the 1960s to the sophisticated General Circulation Models (GCMs) used today. While modern climate models are fairly accurate in capturing large-scale patterns and long-term changes, especially at the global level, they still face challenges in precisely forecasting regional impacts and extreme weather events.
Limitations include imperfect data, oversimplification of complex processes, and a bias towards the Global North, where more observational records are available. However, climate scientists agree that these models remain one of the best tools for understanding the effects of climate change and informing policy decisions to mitigate its adverse impacts.
