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Nobel Laureate: Humanity Faces 35-Year Existential Nuclear Threat
21 Apr
Summary
- Physicist warns of potential human extinction within 35 years due to nuclear war.
- The risk is calculated using radioactive decay-like probability models.
- Deteriorating arms control treaties and rising global tensions increase danger.
Nobel laureate David Gross has alerted humanity to a potential existential catastrophe, warning that nuclear war could occur within the next 35 years. He bases this projection on an estimated 2% annual risk of nuclear conflict, a figure he feels has risen due to the erosion of arms control treaties.
Gross points to the expiration of the New START treaty in February 2026 and the increasing number of nuclear powers as significant threats. He also cites geopolitical tensions and the growing role of automation and AI in military systems as factors increasing the danger. These advanced systems, he warns, could make decisions at speeds beyond human control.
However, Gross also expressed optimism, drawing parallels with the global response to climate change. He believes that, much like nuclear weapons were created by humans, they can be dismantled through collective awareness and action.
