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Outbreaks Driven by 20% of People: The Superspreader Effect
29 Jan
Summary
- A small group of infected individuals drives the majority of transmissions.
- Twenty percent of people may cause eighty percent of infections.
- Virus concentrations can vary dramatically between infected individuals.
Emerging research indicates that a small percentage of individuals act as 'superspreaders,' disproportionately driving infectious disease outbreaks. This phenomenon is not new and applies to various respiratory pathogens, including flu, RSV, tuberculosis, and measles.
Scientists have identified a mathematical pattern, estimating that approximately 20% of infected people could be responsible for up to 80% of transmissions in an outbreak. This suggests a significant concentration of infectiousness within a subset of the population.
Furthermore, studies reveal extreme variability in the amount of virus present in an infected person's respiratory fluids. Some individuals may carry up to 10 million times more virus particles than others, with concentrations reaching a billion virus copies per milliliter at the higher end. This wide range in viral load likely contributes to superspreading events.
