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Measles Wave Subsides, But Herd Immunity Still Distant
13 Aug
Summary
- Manitoba's recent measles infections have significantly decreased.
- Herd immunity requires 95% vaccination, a target Manitoba has not reached.
- Measles cases in the US have surged, posing a risk to Canada.
The most recent wave of measles infections in Manitoba has subsided, with new cases dwindling to lows not recorded since March 2025. For three and a half weeks in July, no new infections were reported, marking the longest period of reprieve since the winter of 2024-25. Despite this significant decline from a peak of 177 cases in February, experts caution that herd immunity remains elusive.
Achieving herd immunity, which requires at least 95% of the population to be immune, is crucial for preventing future outbreaks. Current vaccination rates fall short, with only about 81% of two-year-olds having received their first measles dose by 2024, and just 72% of children up to age seven having received two doses. This leaves large susceptible populations vulnerable to the highly contagious virus.
Experts predict that cases may increase again, particularly during colder months when transmission is amplified indoors. The growing number of measles cases in the United States presents an increased risk of the virus being imported into Canada. Health officials in Manitoba are continuing outreach and vaccination campaigns to build trust and improve immunization rates, emphasizing the preventable nature of the disease and its potential to strain healthcare resources.
