Dengue Biomarkers: Predicting Severity with High Accuracy

Scientists are making significant strides in predicting the severity of dengue infections by identifying crucial biomarkers during the early febrile phase. Traditionally, predicting dengue's sudden worsening has been challenging, with warning signs often appearing too late.

Researchers at the Institute of Advanced Virology (IAV) in Kerala, India, are conducting a large prospective study involving 2,000 dengue patients. This follows a successful pilot study of 150 patients which indicated near-perfect accuracy in predicting severe dengue outcomes using a computer model based on specific blood protein spikes.

The study focuses on biomarkers that indicate vascular integrity loss, a hallmark of dengue. These markers show a sharp increase at the fever-break stage, particularly in patients who later develop severe illness. This predictive capability is vital for hospitals in hyperendemic areas like Kerala, where resources are often strained.

IAV plans to develop an affordable, bedside prognostic assay for clinical use, potentially integrated into point-of-care devices. They are collaborating with international institutions for computational modeling support, aiming to enhance the accuracy and accessibility of dengue severity prediction.