COVID-19 Surge Expected to Peak in Early September 2025

According to the latest data, the United States is currently experiencing a surge in COVID-19 cases, with infections rising in all but five states as of mid-August 2025. Infectious disease modeler Jay Weiland has predicted that this summer wave of COVID-19 will likely reach its peak in early September 2025.

Jenn Dowd, a professor of demography and population health at the University of Oxford, has referenced Weiland's prediction model in her newsletter, noting that the data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) supports this forecast. Dowd warns that the back-to-school season could "pour fuel on the fire" of viral spread, and the situation will become clearer in the coming weeks.

While COVID-19 levels are lower than last summer, experts caution that the virus remains a serious threat. Jessica Malaty Rivera, an infectious disease epidemiologist, explains that wastewater data can only provide a partial picture, as it cannot distinguish between active and non-infectious virus fragments. However, the presence of the virus in wastewater is a clear indication of ongoing transmission.

To mitigate the impact of this COVID-19 surge, health officials are urging the public to take precautions. Dowd recommends that individuals who have not received an updated COVID-19 vaccine in the past year should consider getting one, especially if they are over 65 or immunocompromised. Additionally, she advises paying attention to ventilation, staying home when sick, and masking in high-risk situations.

As the country braces for another potential wave of COVID-19, experts emphasize the importance of taking proactive steps to protect oneself and the community. While the situation remains fluid, the predictions of a September peak serve as a reminder to stay vigilant and prioritize public health measures.