Dementia Risk Found in 'Brain Age' Mismatch

Researchers have identified a potential new predictor for dementia risk, based on the estimated age of a person's brain via MRI scans. This 'brain age' estimate, when compared to an individual's actual age, may signal an increased likelihood of developing dementia years before clinical symptoms become apparent.

The study, conducted at Amsterdam UMC in the Netherlands, utilized AI algorithms to analyze MRI scans from 2002 to 2024. They discovered that a brain appearing older than a person's real age is a significant warning sign. Specifically, for every year the brain appears older, the risk of dementia increases by 6 percent.

This novel approach, called brain-PAD, showed particular promise in identifying individuals with subjective cognitive decline (SCD), a very early stage where changes are too subtle for traditional visual assessments by radiologists. For patients with SCD, a brain appearing at least 2.6 years younger than their actual age indicated a 99% chance of not developing dementia within the next two to ten years.

While the method yielded fewer additional insights for patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) compared to current MRI ratings, researchers are optimistic. They believe this AI-based brain age calculation could supplement existing diagnostic tools, enabling earlier identification and intervention strategies for individuals at risk of progressing to dementia.