El Niño Looms: Zambia Faces Food Security Fears

Southern Africa, including Zambia, is bracing for another El Niño event, raising concerns about disrupted rainfall patterns and potential impacts on food production. Global tensions, particularly involving the US, Israel, and Iran, have sparked warnings of fuel and fertilizer supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, which could affect food security in African nations.

While Zambia has experienced good rains and above-average maize harvests in recent seasons, leading to a decline in food prices, experts emphasize underlying structural vulnerabilities. The country's food system's heavy dependence on maize, coupled with significant reliance on imported food, fertilizer, and fuel, makes it susceptible to international market fluctuations. Urban populations, accounting for nearly 40% of the country's residents, are particularly exposed to these global supply chain effects.

Historical data from 2023-2024 illustrates this vulnerability, when a drought linked to El Niño severely reduced domestic maize production. Looking ahead, the anticipated return of El Niño, combined with rising global prices for diesel and synthetic fertilizer due to Middle East tensions, could increase the cost of imported food from South Africa and other sources. This could complicate Zambia's upcoming agricultural season and threaten its farmers.

Investments in irrigation, local fertilizer production, and climate-smart agriculture are identified as crucial steps to reduce Zambia's dependence on imported inputs and withstand future shocks. Building a resilient food system capable of enduring climate variability, global market volatility, and interconnected challenges is paramount for the nation's future food security.