El Niño Alert: 3.4M Somalis at Risk of Floods

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has issued a stark warning regarding the potential impact of anticipated El Niño rains on Somalia. Up to 3.4 million people are at risk across the nation, with 16 out of 18 regions potentially affected, particularly Hiiraan, Middle Juba, and Lower Juba.

These forecast rains, expected from October to December, could bring floods comparable to or exceeding the extreme levels recorded in 2023 and 1997, Somalia's worst flood years. This comes as communities are still reeling from a prolonged drought, exacerbating their vulnerability.

The convergence of floods, displacement, and poor sanitation raises concerns about waterborne diseases. This is compounded by the closure or reduced functionality of at least 380 health facilities due to funding issues, alongside 115 mobile health units ceasing operations.

While the UN, its partners, and the Somali government are enhancing preparedness measures like risk analysis and contingency planning, significant gaps persist, especially in funding and readiness for high-risk zones. The humanitarian response plan for Somalia is only 31% funded, with $852 million needed and only $262 million received.

Scientists from NOAA confirmed a new El Niño phase, noting ocean temperatures exceeding the average by 0.5C in the central tropical Pacific. Some experts warn this event could be exceptionally strong, with a 63% chance of it being considered 'very strong' and potentially one of the most significant since 1950, expected to last until early 2027.