Beyond GDP: Rethinking Progress for a Healthy Planet

The world is witnessing a dual record in 2024 with unprecedented global GDP per capita coinciding with the highest annual carbon emissions. This trend underscores the long-standing challenge of decoupling economic growth from environmental harm, a pattern observed since the 1990s. Developing nations have historically received looser emissions targets to foster economic development, creating an assumption that prosperity inevitably leads to ecological damage.

Growing concern over slipping climate targets and the potential crossing of irreversible tipping points is fueling a reevaluation of GDP as a sole measure of progress. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has urged a move beyond current accounting systems, which he argues are steering the planet toward disaster. This sentiment aligns with the "post-growth" economic school, which questions the necessity of constant expansion for societal well-being.

Post-growth proponents advocate for alternative frameworks such as "doughnut economics" and "wellbeing budgets," which incorporate environmental costs. While disagreements exist on specific de-growth strategies, there is a consensus that a radical rethink is vital. Experts like Professor Tim Jackson emphasize that "economic growth has a near mythical status," but wishful thinking will not resolve the climate crisis, suggesting post-growth offers more realistic possibilities for human prosperity.

Evidence for "green growth," where economies expand without increasing emissions, remains contested. While countries like the UK and France have shown reductions in domestic emissions alongside GDP growth, this picture blurs when accounting for imported goods. Furthermore, the impact extends beyond carbon emissions to broader "planetary boundaries," with seven of nine critical ecological processes now dangerously breached. This indicates a fundamental trade-off: increased living standards often correlate with exceeding environmental limits, as a 2018 University of Leeds study found no nation met its residents' basic needs within biophysical limits.

Academics are divided into three main camps: green Keynesians advocating state-led green growth, green capitalists relying on market reforms and technology, and post-growth proponents who argue for a reduction in the economy's physical scale. The de-growth movement, a prominent aspect of post-growth economics, calls for significant scaling down of production and consumption. Regardless of the approach, the urgent need to align economic activity with planetary boundaries is clear, as global emissions must fall 45% by 2030 to meet Paris Agreement targets.