El Nino Shatters Records: Strongest Ever Expected

A potent El Nino event, which emerged in May, is rapidly strengthening and is projected to become the strongest on record. The National Climate Center forecasts its peak sea surface temperature index to reach between 3.2 and 3.5 C around November, significantly exceeding the previous record of 2.8 C. This phenomenon has already influenced China's climate, contributing to more severe flooding than drought in many central and eastern areas.

The El Nino's influence on China is expected to persist through the autumn, winter, and into spring and summer of 2027. Forecasters anticipate above-average precipitation across much of Central and eastern China in October and November, heightening the risk of flash floods and landslides. Conversely, some northwestern regions may experience a deficit in precipitation, increasing the likelihood of drought and forest fires.

In the coming months, China's coastal areas face elevated risks from typhoons, expected to be stronger than usual. Winter forecasts suggest generally above-average temperatures, with potential for more frequent cold waves and sharp temperature fluctuations. Overall precipitation is also predicted to be above normal. The El Nino is anticipated to weaken by spring or summer 2027, but its lingering effects, including potentially stronger summer heat waves in 2027, are expected.