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El Niño Weakens Atlantic Storms: NOAA Forecast Update
10 Aug
Summary
- NOAA predicts 7-13 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes this season.
- El Niño is expected to increase wind shear, suppressing storm formation.
- Preparedness remains crucial for coastal residents despite forecast.
Forecasters at NOAA are maintaining their prediction for a quiet Atlantic hurricane season, with a 75% probability of below-normal activity. This updated outlook estimates between 7 to 13 named storms, with 2 to 6 potentially developing into hurricanes, and 0 to 2 major hurricanes for the season running until November 30.
The primary driver for this suppressed forecast is the strengthening El Niño, which is expected to increase wind shear across the Atlantic. Increased wind shear typically inhibits storm formation and weakens existing storms, thereby reducing overall hurricane season activity.
Despite the favorable forecast, NOAA stresses the ongoing importance of preparedness for coastal communities. Residents are reminded that even a below-normal season can still produce impactful storms. The season has already seen two tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, both forming in the Gulf of Mexico and affecting Louisiana.
While El Niño suppresses Atlantic storm activity, it promotes storm development in the Eastern Pacific. NOAA's forecast for the Eastern Pacific remains significantly above average, with an anticipated 15 to 22 named storms.
