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Kerala's Monsoon Deficit: Summer Water Crisis Looms
24 Dec
Summary
- Northeast monsoon is 20% deficient as of December 24, 2025.
- Shortfall in both monsoon seasons may strain reservoir levels.
- Weak La Niña conditions are expected to persist until early 2026.
Kerala is set to record a deficient northeast monsoon season, with only a week remaining before its formal withdrawal. As of December 24, 2025, the state has experienced a 20% shortfall in rainfall, receiving 388.3 mm against the usual 487.2 mm. This follows a 13% deficit recorded during the preceding southwest monsoon, raising concerns about water availability.
The current atmospheric conditions suggest no significant rainfall is expected in the remaining days of the season. The cumulative deficit from both major monsoon periods is predicted to strain reservoir levels, such as Idukki and Banasurasagar, potentially impacting water supply and exacerbating heat during the upcoming summer of 2026.
Adding to the concern, weak La Niña conditions are prevailing and are forecast to continue into early 2026. While La Niña typically brings cooler winters and stronger monsoons to India, the current season's deficit indicates a deviation. The India Meteorological Department has warned of below-normal rainfall and minimum temperatures for Kerala in the remaining December period.
