Kenyan Carbon Project Struggles as Offset Market Plummets

In 2025, the Kasigau carbon project in Kenya, once a shining example of successful forest conservation efforts, finds itself struggling to survive as the carbon offset market has dramatically collapsed. Just two years ago, this project was the basis of a multibillion-dollar boom, with companies like Netflix and Shell purchasing millions of credits to offset their emissions.

However, a series of investigations have revealed that the overwhelming majority of forest protection offsets approved by the leading certifier, Verra, massively overstated their impact. Independent research published in 2023 found that more than 90% of these offsets did not represent genuine carbon reductions. This revelation has led to a market downturn that has wiped hundreds of millions off the value of the carbon credit market, and with it, the funding for projects that were successfully slowing deforestation, including Kasigau.

For the communities living within the Kasigau project area, the loss of this funding has been devastating. Over the lifetime of the scheme, $70 million had flowed to local people, paying for schools, healthcare, and water storage. But now, with the project's future in doubt, that support has dried up, leaving many struggling. Locals fear that without the project, the forests of Kasigau will be lost to charcoal burning and subsistence agriculture.

While efforts are underway to reform the carbon credit system and restore credibility, the future remains uncertain. The collapse of the green agenda in the corporate world has further compounded the challenges, with companies like Ryanair scrapping the use of offsets altogether. As the climate movement grapples with these setbacks, the fate of successful conservation projects like Kasigau hangs in the balance.