India Faces 18 TWh Energy Gap Due to El Nino

India's energy system is projected to experience a substantial impact from the current El Nino event, according to a CREA report. The transition from La Nina to El Nino between July 2026 and June 2027 is anticipated to reduce electricity generation from wind and hydropower.

Simultaneously, higher temperatures are expected to drive up electricity demand for cooling. This surge could increase demand by about 10 terawatt-hours over a year. The combined effect of reduced renewable output and increased demand may result in an electricity generation gap of nearly 18 TWh.

This potential gap could lead to increased reliance on coal-fired power, releasing an estimated 17 million tonnes of CO2. In a more severe scenario, additional coal generation might reach 24 TWh. This El Nino serves as a warning for more frequent extreme weather events linked to climate change.

Expanding solar power and battery storage is crucial for enhancing grid resilience. Despite a recent heatwave pushing power demand to record levels, India should maintain its goal of 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030. Accelerating investments in battery storage and grid modernization is key to ensuring clean energy can meet rising demand reliably.