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India's Coal Use to Surge Then Plummet by 2070
10 Feb
Summary
- Coal consumption could more than double by mid-century, then sharply decline.
- Net-zero goal sees coal demand collapsing to 161 million tons by 2070.
- Coal remains essential for near-term power backup and grid balancing.
Long-term projections from NITI Aayog indicate India's coal consumption could more than double by mid-century, reaching 2.62 billion metric tons in 2050 under current policies. However, with India's commitment to net-zero emissions by 2070, coal demand is forecast to peak at 1.83 billion tons in 2050 and then dramatically collapse to only 161 million tons by 2070.
Virtually all remaining coal use in 2070 would be confined to challenging sectors like steel and cement, requiring carbon capture technology. Currently, India relies on coal for nearly three-quarters of its power generation and plans to increase coal power capacity to meet rising electricity demand. Coal will be essential in the near term to back up solar and wind power and stabilize the grid.
Transitioning away from coal necessitates large-scale battery storage, increased nuclear energy, grid expansion, and reduced clean technology costs. Even operational coal plants will likely run less frequently, primarily for peak demand and emergencies.
