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El Niño May Bring Quiet Atlantic, Boost Pacific Storms
14 Aug
Summary
- Atlantic hurricane season predicted to be below normal with 8-14 named storms.
- El Niño phenomenon is expected to suppress Atlantic storm development.
- Eastern Pacific Ocean may experience unusually stormy conditions affecting West Coast and Hawaii.
The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, running from June 1 to November 30, is forecasted to be below normal, with predictions of eight to 14 named storms. This outlook is primarily driven by the near certainty of an El Niño weather pattern forming this summer and persisting into the fall.
El Niño typically acts as a deterrent to Atlantic storms by altering high-altitude winds that can disrupt hurricane formation. Despite this, NOAA scientists acknowledge some uncertainty, noting that record-warm ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean could still fuel storm development.
Conversely, the Eastern Pacific Ocean is anticipated to experience an unusually active season. Storms forming in this region generally move westward, but some can be steered towards the U.S. West Coast, Mexico, or Hawaii, presenting a different set of risks for these areas.
While the Atlantic may see fewer storms, the potential for significant impacts remains. Historical data shows that even during El Niño years, major hurricanes can form and make landfall, as seen in previous seasons where specific weather conditions allowed storms to intensify despite the prevailing El Niño pattern.
