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England Faces Extended Drought: 7 Months Rain Needed
17 Sep
Summary
- Above-average rainfall is critical for England's drought recovery.
- Nearly three-quarters of England remains in drought conditions.
- 120% of normal rainfall needed by April for full recovery.
England needs sustained above-average rainfall over the next seven months to fully recover from drought conditions by spring 2027. Despite recent wet weather, nearly three-quarters of the country remains affected by drought due to an exceptionally dry spring and summer, exacerbated by heatwaves.
Research indicates that approximately 120% of typical rainfall is necessary between now and April for all areas to emerge from drought status. Current forecasts suggest that even a wetter-than-normal autumn may not be sufficient, with Devon, Cornwall, and East Anglia potentially still experiencing drought by spring 2027.
There is a notable risk, estimated at a one-in-four chance, that about half of England could remain in drought next spring. The likelihood of a severe drought in the coming months is currently very low, at around 1%. Severe drought is defined by extensive and lasting impacts on the environment, farming, communities, and the economy.
