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El Niño Watch: Pacific Warming Signals Global Shift
28 May
Summary
- El Niño Watch issued March 2026 with 82% probability of emergence by July.
- Strong El Niño events caused over 20,000 deaths and billions in damage.
- New index, Relative Oceanic Niño Index, accounts for background ocean warming.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch on March 12, 2026, indicating favorable conditions for the climate phenomenon. There's an 82% probability El Niño will emerge in the central equatorial Pacific between May and July 2026, with a high chance of persisting through the 2026-27 winter.
Historically, El Niño events, such as the 1997-98 and 2015-16 occurrences, have caused substantial global disruption. These events have been linked to over 20,000 deaths and billions in infrastructure damage. The developing El Niño event emerges in a warming Pacific Ocean.
To address this background warming, NOAA adopted the Relative Oceanic Niño Index in February 2026, replacing the previous 30-year standard. This new index isolates the natural El Niño cycle from long-term ocean temperature increases.
This forecast marks the first major El Niño prediction verified against the new measurement system. The event will unfold in a decade where all ten warmest years on record have occurred, highlighting the amplified impact of the cycle.
