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El Niño Fuels Wildfire Fears in Northern US
18 Oct
Summary
- Strengthening El Niño poses increased wildfire risk to northern U.S.
- Southern U.S. may experience reduced wildfire threat due to El Niño.
- El Niño alters weather patterns, impacting vegetation moisture levels.
A strengthening El Niño event is projected to increase wildfire susceptibility in parts of the northern United States, creating a potential dividing line for fire danger. This phenomenon, characterized by warmer Pacific sea surface temperatures, is expected to significantly impact weather patterns across the globe.
Research indicates that an autumn El Niño can lead to higher atmospheric pressure over the northern tier of the U.S. This may elevate the risk of large fires in regions like the Northern Rockies, including areas of Montana, Idaho, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming, during the following spring.
Conversely, states such as Arizona and New Mexico, along with parts of Texas and Oklahoma, could experience a reduced likelihood of extensive wildfires. El Niño typically shifts the jet stream southward, bringing wetter conditions to the Southern U.S., which helps keep vegetation moist and less prone to burning.
