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El Niño's lasting climate shock revealed
29 Apr
Summary
- El Niño can cause permanent, abrupt climate shifts.
- Global temperatures may permanently exceed 1.5°C.
- Super El Niños act as climate shocks, not events.
The temporary El Niño phenomenon is now understood to trigger lasting climate "regime shifts," according to recent scientific findings. These shifts involve abrupt and permanent changes in heat, rainfall, and drought patterns across the globe.
Scientists warn that a strong El Niño, occurring within the next 12 to 18 months, could permanently elevate global average temperatures past the crucial 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold. This threshold marks a point of potentially irreversible climate impacts.
"Super El Niños," rare events like those in 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16, are not mere weather fluctuations but climate shocks. They have been observed to cause lasting regional changes in ocean temperatures, leading to marine heatwaves and ecosystem damage.
These climate shocks also manifest on land, with observed soil moisture changes in regions like central southern Asia and the Amazon. Such persistent shifts can turn short-term events into long-term risks, affecting food production and water security for years to come.
