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WMO Warns: El Nino Set to Impact India in 2026
25 Apr
Summary
- El Nino's potential return in 2026 poses weather challenges for India.
- WMO models show high confidence for El Nino onset and intensification.
- Warmer oceans intensify El Nino effects, impacting global weather patterns.
India could confront a challenging weather year in 2026, as global climate signals suggest the possible return of El Nino, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
Early warnings from climate agencies point to rising Pacific ocean temperatures, increasing the probability of El Nino conditions forming between May and July. This natural cycle, part of the larger ENSO phenomenon, could strengthen later in the year.
WMO's Chief of Climate Prediction, Wilfran Moufouma Okia, stated that climate models show high confidence in El Nino's onset, though predicting its exact strength remains challenging due to the spring predictability barrier. Forecast confidence typically improves after April.
Beyond India, above-normal temperatures are anticipated for May-July 2026 in regions including North America, Europe, and parts of Africa. While El Nino is a natural occurrence, its effects are intensifying in a warming world.
Climate change does not alter El Nino's frequency but can amplify its impacts. Warmer oceans and air contribute more energy and moisture, leading to more severe heatwaves and heavier rainfall events globally. Notably, 2024 was the hottest year on record, partly due to a strong El Nino and long-term warming trends.
