What is the Decision Support System (DSS) and how does it work?

The Decision Support System (DSS) is the only source apportionment study currently available to identify sources contributing to Delhi's PM 2.5 pollution. It operates under the Ministry of Earth Sciences and is managed by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) in Pune. The DSS estimates the contribution of various pollution sources, including emissions from 19 NCR towns, to Delhi's PM 2.5 levels.

Why has the DSS been failing to accurately forecast the impact of stubble burning in Delhi?

According to officials, the pattern of stubble burning has changed compared to previous seasons, which may have led to inaccuracies in the DSS model's projections. Additionally, the DSS relies on an outdated 2021 emissions inventory, which can lead to significant errors in estimating pollution sources.

Home / Environment / Delhi's Pollution Forecasting System Fails to Accurately Predict Stubble Burning Impact

Delhi's Pollution Forecasting System Fails to Accurately Predict Stubble Burning Impact

Q: What is the actual contribution of stubble burning to Delhi's PM 2.5 levels compared to the DSS forecasts?

The DSS forecasts have projected that stubble burning could contribute over 30% to Delhi's PM 2.5 levels. However, the actual contributions have remained below 10% on all days, based on fire counts recorded later in the day.

11 Nov, 2025

•

Summary

Decision Support System (DSS) unable to accurately forecast stubble burning contribution
Actual stubble burning contribution remains below 10%, despite DSS projections of over 30%
DSS relies on outdated 2021 emissions inventory, raising questions about forecast validity

Delhi's Pollution Forecasting System Fails to Accurately Predict Stubble Burning Impact

As of 2025-11-11T06:25:52+00:00, the Decision Support System (DSS), the only source apportionment study currently available to identify sources contributing to Delhi's PM 2.5 pollution, has been struggling to accurately forecast the impact of stubble burning in the capital.

In recent days, DSS forecasts projected that stubble burning could contribute over 30% to Delhi's PM 2.5 levels. However, the actual contributions have remained below 10% on all days, based on fire counts recorded later in the day. Officials explain that this year's stubble fires have not peaked yet, and the model's inability to capture fires occurring after the satellite pass time of 2:30 pm has led to these inaccuracies.