How is the Congo Basin deforestation affecting cocoa production in West Africa?

The rapid deforestation in the Congo Basin, a critical carbon sink, is disrupting rainfall patterns in West Africa's cocoa belt, leading to projections of up to 80% drop in cocoa production in Ivory Coast by 2050.

Which countries are most affected by the Congo Basin deforestation's impact on cocoa production?

The study projects that by 2050, Ivory Coast could see a 1.6 million tonne drop in cocoa production, Ghana 866,000 tonnes, Nigeria 377,000 tonnes, and Cameroon 205,000 tonnes.

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Congo Basin Deforestation Threatens Global Cocoa Supply

Q: What is the impact of the Congo Basin deforestation on global cocoa prices?

The study estimates that cocoa prices could reach $68.10 per kilogramme by 2050, almost six times the 2030 level, with deforestation accounting for about 40% of the increase.

18 Nov

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Summary

Congo Basin, world's "second lung", losing tree cover rapidly
Deforestation disrupting rainfall patterns in West Africa's cocoa belt
Cocoa production in major producing countries projected to plummet

Congo Basin Deforestation Threatens Global Cocoa Supply

As of November 2025, the degradation of the vast Congo Basin, known as the world's "second lung", is taking a toll across the African continent and threatening one of the world's most traded and beloved crops: cocoa. Stretching across six Central African countries, the world's second-largest tropical rainforest is a critical carbon sink that shapes weather patterns as far away as Ivory Coast.

However, the Congo Basin has already lost around 10% of its tree cover since 2000, and deforestation is now accelerating, driven by small-scale agriculture, logging, and charcoal production. If current rates continue, 27% of the forest could be destroyed by 2050, leading to persistently drier conditions both locally and across West Africa's cocoa belt.

A recent study by Zero Carbon Analytics projects that by 2050, cumulative losses could reach 1.6 million tonnes in Ivory Coast, about 80% of current output, and a further 866,000 tonnes in Ghana, 377,000 in Nigeria, and 205,000 in Cameroon. This would have a global impact, with cocoa prices potentially reaching $68.10 per kilogramme by 2050, almost six times the 2030 level.