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Climate 'Overshoot' Looms: 2.7C Warming Expected
12 Nov
Summary
- Global temperatures may rise by 2.7C by century's end under current policies.
- This rise breaches the agreed 1.5C threshold, risking intolerable climate impacts.
- Every increment of warming matters; defeatism must be avoided, experts urge.
The planet is on track for an "irrecoverable overshoot" of global temperature thresholds, with current policies predicting an average warming of 2.7C by 2100. This projection, a slight increase from last year's analysis, significantly surpasses the 1.5C limit agreed upon a decade ago and is expected to be breached within a few years. Such warming could trigger intolerable climate impacts and potentially runaway climate change.
While countries convene for UN climate talks focusing on this looming "overshoot," the UN secretary-general urges decisive action to phase out fossil fuels. Even in the most optimistic scenario, fulfilling all national pledges would result in 1.9C warming. Experts emphasize that governments face a critical choice: either continue supporting fossil fuels, leading to insurmountable damages, or pivot to readily available and cheaper solutions. Every fraction of a degree of warming is critical, and exceeding 1.5C should not lead to defeatism.
