Climate Change Squeezes Global Farmland Yields

A CSIC research team in Barcelona has launched CADI, a platform designed to estimate the impact of climate change on farmland productivity by the year 2100. This tool utilizes a 9.3-kilometer grid to predict changes, keeping crop types constant to isolate climate effects. The model projects significant global losses, with tropical regions bearing the brunt of the impact. Within Europe, southern areas are predicted to see declines, while Scandinavia and Scotland may experience gains.

Spain's internal agricultural landscape shows a similar disparity. The Cantabrian coast, Galicia, and the Pyrenees are expected to gain productivity, contrasting with substantial losses projected for much of the country's interior and central-eastern regions. These shifts have profound implications, as 15% of the global population already faces reduced agricultural potential. Under a medium-high warming scenario, this could affect nearly half the planet's inhabitants by mid-century.

The researchers emphasize that CADI can help identify areas needing support for adaptation, such as new crops, technology, or relocation of production. This proactive approach aims to mitigate future impacts on rural incomes, food security, and population movements. The study also highlights the disproportionate burden on low-emission countries, exacerbating global inequalities.