Climate Change Threatens Global Farmland Productivity by 2100

A CSIC team in Barcelona has developed CADI, a tool that forecasts farmland productivity loss by 2100 on a 10-kilometer grid. This Climate-Induced Agricultural Decline Index isolates climate's pure effect on crop yields, excluding human adaptation.

Data show one in six global croplands lost over 10% productivity in the last two decades compared to the previous two. Tropical regions are bearing the brunt of these losses, while some high-latitude areas see gains, though from a low production base.

Spain's interior faces more severe losses than its Cantabrian coast. Globally, if warming continues on a medium-high trajectory, nearly half the world's population could live in areas with reduced agricultural potential by mid-century.

Researchers highlight that countries least responsible for emissions are most exposed to these losses. CADI aims to identify areas needing support for adaptation, such as new crops, technology, or production relocation, to mitigate future food insecurity.