California Fire Risk: Water Levels Mislead?

California's abundant reservoir levels, currently at or above historical averages, do not correlate with wildfire risk, according to state water officials. The true indicators of fire danger are precipitation levels and snowpack, both of which have been concerningly low, with January being abnormally dry and statewide snowpack at only 59 percent of average.

Despite these dry conditions, the official four-month outlook from February through May projects near-normal wildfire risk across California. This assessment considers factors like adequate moisture from expected storms and robust green-up in lowland areas. However, officials caution that May could see increasing spread potential as lowland vegetation cures and dead fuels become more flammable.

While Northern California anticipates more storms in March, Southern California faces a forecast of below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures. Nevertheless, fire threat is expected to remain near normal through April due to increased live fuel moisture from late 2025 precipitation. Climate change continues to blur traditional wildfire season boundaries, necessitating year-round preparedness statewide.